A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
